Pakistan Peace Talks: Risks & Generals’ Role

Pakistan is once again positioning itself as a potential mediator in international conflict, this time between the United States and Iran, echoing a similar role played during the Cold War. The country’s ambition to be a consequential actor is underscored by its diplomatic efforts and growing military capabilities.

Pakistan’s Historical Role in US-China Detente

In August 1969, a secret diplomatic cable from the US embassy in Islamabad revealed a conversation between Henry Kissinger and Air Marshal Nur Khan, head of Pakistan’s air force. Both agreed that China’s then-premier Zhou Enlai might be open to negotiations with the United States if Washington withdrew its military forces from Taiwan. This cable initiated a period of secret diplomacy aimed at easing tensions between the two Cold War rivals, involving high-level officials from the US, Pakistan, and China.

Current Geopolitical Landscape

The current situation mirrors this historical dynamic, with Pakistan seeking to mediate talks between the US and Iran amid escalating tensions. The United States and Israel have conducted a military campaign against Iran, targeting its leadership and nuclear program, while Iran has responded by disrupting global oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.

Asim Munir and Pakistan’s Rising Power

Since assuming the role of Pakistan’s Chief of the Army Staff in November 2022, Asim Munir has consolidated power, sidelining rivals and suppressing democratic opposition. He has since been promoted to Field Marshal and created the new position of Chief of Defence Forces, becoming the country’s most powerful leader in decades.

Munir’s influence has grown following a brief armed conflict with India in May 2025, triggered by the Pahalgam terrorist attack. Pakistan’s air force, utilizing Chinese-designed J-10C fighters, reportedly shot down several Indian fighter jets, including French-made Rafales, marking the first combat deployment of Chinese military equipment.

China expressed support for Pakistan during this period, with Foreign Minister Wang Yi reportedly affirming China’s support for Pakistan’s sovereignty to his Pakistani counterpart.

Diplomatic Maneuvering and Strategic Alliances

Munir has cultivated a strong relationship with President Donald Trump, reportedly nominating him for a Nobel Peace Prize and endorsing his Gaza peace plan. He has also promoted the development of the Pasni seaport to American investors, located near China’s Gwadar port.

Despite maintaining ties with Tehran, Pakistan has also concluded a mutual defence treaty with Saudi Arabia, even after exchanging missile strikes with Iran in January 2024.

Pakistan’s ability to navigate these complex relationships and act as a convening power is a hallmark of its foreign policy. However, the country also has a history of complex and sometimes contradictory actions, such as its past support for the Afghan Taliban while publicly claiming the opposite, and its recent declaration of “open war” against the same group.

The United States Office of the Director of National Intelligence recently reported that Pakistan continues to develop sophisticated missile technology, including ICBMs capable of reaching targets beyond South Asia.

Pakistan’s strategic assets, including its convening power, nuclear weapons, and ballistic missiles, are carefully guarded by its military leadership. The country’s offers to mediate are often genuine, but its generals are also willing to leverage these assets to advance Pakistan’s interests.