Latvia’s Autumn Election: Will ‘Orbanization’ Take Hold?

Political commentator Māris Zanders has warned that Latvia faces a significant risk of “Orbanization” and the potential erosion of democratic institutions following the upcoming parliamentary elections.

Geopolitical Context and Power Shifts

Zanders compared the current international climate to the autumn of 1939, citing a similar trend where major global powers agree on the division of spheres of influence without consulting smaller nations.

He noted that while the specific actors have changed—with Russia and China emerging as dominant forces—the feeling of powerlessness among smaller states remains a primary emotional driver.

Dynamics of the Latvian Parliamentary Elections

Regarding the upcoming Saeima elections, Zanders predicted the process will be increasingly irrational. He suggests that voter fatigue with the current coalition will lead many to vote based on emotion or the “principle of the lesser evil.”

The “Rail Baltica” project is expected to become a significant political liability for the current government. Zanders stated the project will likely be used by the opposition as a “trump card” to prove the coalition’s inefficiency.

Foreign Influence and the Trump Factor

Zanders expressed concern that some members of the political community may defer too readily to the priorities of a potential Trump administration. He specifically noted the risk of politicians ignoring security warnings in favor of the Trump administration’s desire for economic relations with Russia and Belarus.

This alignment, Zanders argued, could lead to a resumption of relations at high diplomatic levels, potentially increasing the long-term threat as Russia continues to arm itself.

Immigration and Kremlin Narratives

The issue of immigration has already become a potent political tool in Latvia. Zanders observed that voters are increasingly influenced by visual perceptions of immigration in cities like Paris and Stockholm.

He noted that this fits into a broader Kremlin narrative depicting Europe as “soft-shelled.” While some Russian propaganda remains absurd to local voters, themes regarding a “depraved Europe” are finding resonance.

The Probability of “Orbanization”

Zanders assigned a 70% probability to a scenario he calls “Orbanization,” characterized by a replacement of the elite and the rapid alteration of democratic institutions, including courts and security services.

He suggested that such a transition could occur within a year to 18 months, citing the experiences of Hungary, Slovakia, and Poland as evidence that democratic institutions can be changed very quickly.