A spent SpaceX Falcon 9 upper stage is projected to unintentionally collide with the lunar surface on Wednesday, August 5. Scientists estimate the impact will occur around 2:35 a.m. ET, with the rocket hitting the moon’s sunlit western limb near the Einstein Crater at an estimated speed of 5,400 mph—approximately seven times the speed of sound. The collision is expected to release energy equivalent to three tons of TNT.
Origins of the Collision Course
The drifting rocket segment was launched on January 15, 2025, from the Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida, to deliver two commercial lunar landers, including Firefly’s Blue Ghost-1, and scientific instruments to the moon. After completing its mission, the rocket lacked sufficient fuel to return to Earth or move into deep space, leaving it in an unstable orbit for several months.
The abandoned segment, which weighs approximately 10,000 pounds and measures some 40 feet—roughly the size of a five-story building—became trapped in a complex orbit. Influenced by the combined gravity of the Earth and the moon, the piece was slowly pulled toward its current collision course. According to the Associated Press, SpaceX did not intend for the defunct piece to hit the moon.
Scientific Opportunities and Observations
While the impact poses no imminent threat to Earth or the moon, researchers view the event as a rare chance to study ejecta-plume science.
Because the size, speed, and approximate impact location of the rocket are known, scientists can use the event to calibrate computer models regarding how lunar dust behaves and how craters form. William Jo of the University of Texas, Austin, noted that spent rocket stages are hollow, spacecraft-like bodies that may produce plumes different from natural impactors like comets or asteroids.
Observational efforts are already underway:
- NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO): Project scientist Brent Garry of the Goddard Space Flight Center stated the LRO will pass over the projected site about seven days before and seven days after the impact to identify surface changes.
- Ground and Space Facilities: Benjamin Fernando of the Los Alamos National Laboratory described the resulting ejecta plume and flash as “potentially observable” with the right equipment, though he clarified it cannot be seen with binoculars.
- Predicted Effects: Bill Gray, who tracks space objects, suggested the impact could leave a crater at least 17 meters in diameter.
Broader Implications for Lunar Governance
The incident highlights growing concerns regarding space debris as lunar activity increases. Retired astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell told the Associated Press that while this specific impact is not a problem, similar events would be an issue once long-term bases are established on the moon. The United States and China are currently racing to land astronauts on the moon in the coming years, and companies including SpaceX and Blue Origin are competing to provide landers for NASA’s Artemis IV mission.
The event also underscores a lack of regulatory frameworks for the lunar environment. While the 1967 Outer Space Treaty prevents any country from claiming sovereignty over the moon, it provides little guidance on practical governance or environmental regulation. This leaves the American government theoretically responsible for SpaceX’s mistakes and potentially exposes companies to financial liability.
Historical Context
This event will mark the second known accidental crash of a dead rocket into the moon. In 2022, a Chinese rocket segment impacted the lunar far side, creating a double crater approximately 95 feet wide. Because the moon has no weather or significant atmosphere to cause erosion, such impact craters persist for thousands of years.
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