China Trade 2025: Tariffs & Shipping Shifts

Trade between the United States and China experienced a significant contraction in 2025, driven by ongoing tariffs and a restructuring of global supply chains, according to a new report. U.S. imports from China fell 28% year over year, while exports to China declined by 38%, representing one of the largest bilateral trade declines in recent decades.

U.S.-China Trade Decline and Supply Chain Shifts

The report suggests this shift is a lasting realignment, with Southeast Asian economies gaining an increasing share of trade with the U.S. Indonesia led the gains, with a 34% increase in U.S. imports, followed by Thailand at 28%.

Despite the overall decline, U.S. exports to China showed some stabilization toward the end of 2025. Export declines narrowed to 23% in November and turned positive in December, recording a 13% year-over-year increase—the first monthly gain of the year.

Imports from China, however, remained significantly depressed through year-end, running 34% below prior-year levels in December with no clear signs of recovery.

Shipping capacity has adjusted to the lower demand, with blank sailings falling to 62 in December from a peak of 131 in April.

Policy Uncertainty and Future Outlook

The outlook remains uncertain as the U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule by June on the legality of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. A ruling against the administration could raise questions about tariff refunds and future trade policy.

Further uncertainty stems from potential new tariffs on countries trading with Iran, which could affect China—Iran’s largest trading partner—and disrupt recent U.S.-China trade de-escalation efforts.

Container imports at major U.S. ports are expected to remain below year-ago levels through at least May, reflecting slower global growth and ongoing policy uncertainty, according to the National Retail Federation. January container volumes are projected at 2.11 million TEUs, 5.3% lower than the previous year, with the first year-over-year increase not expected until May.

China’s expanding trade surplus suggests it is strengthening commercial ties beyond the U.S. even as bilateral trade contracts. Experts note a growing global focus on protecting domestic industries and addressing perceived trade imbalances, which continues to challenge global trade cooperation.