Navigating Disruption: China’s Military in Flux

The report highlights a paradoxical situation within the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). While extensive leadership changes and investigations into procurement practices are creating short-term instability, China remains firmly on track to meet General Secretary Xi Jinping’s “Centennial Military Building Goal” by 2027. This goal envisions a fully modernized military capable of projecting power regionally and globally.

These internal challenges, including the recent removal of high-ranking officials, haven’t demonstrably slowed the overall trajectory of China’s military development. Instead, the PLA appears to be adapting, albeit with some turbulence. The report suggests that Xi Jinping’s firm grip on power allows for these purges without fundamentally derailing long-term strategic objectives.

A key focus of this modernization remains the development of capabilities specifically designed to counter U.S. and allied strengths in the Indo-Pacific region, with a particular emphasis on Taiwan. China views Taiwan as a renegade province and has not ruled out the use of force to achieve reunification. This ambition drives significant investment in naval power, air force modernization, and advanced missile technologies.

The PLA Navy (PLAN) continues to expand at a rapid pace, commissioning new destroyers, frigates, and aircraft carriers. This expansion is coupled with advancements in anti-ship missile technology, designed to deny access to the region. Simultaneously, the PLA Air Force is upgrading its fleet with advanced fighter jets and bombers, enhancing its ability to project air power.

Beyond hardware, the report details China’s growing focus on information warfare, cyber capabilities, and space-based assets. These areas are considered crucial for modern warfare and are receiving substantial investment. The Council on Foreign Relations provides further analysis on China’s broader strategic ambitions.

What impact will these internal investigations have on the speed of China’s military modernization? And how will the United States and its allies respond to these evolving capabilities?

The report also acknowledges China’s increasing use of gray zone tactics – actions that fall below the threshold of traditional warfare but are designed to achieve strategic objectives. These tactics include economic coercion, cyberattacks, and the use of maritime militias.

War on the Rocks originally published this report.

Frequently Asked Questions About China’s Military Power

1. What is China’s “Centennial Military Building Goal”?

   The “Centennial Military Building Goal,” set by General Secretary Xi Jinping, aims to fully modernize the People’s Liberation Army by 2027, marking the 100th anniversary of its founding. This includes achieving a world-class military capable of defending China’s interests and projecting power globally.

2. How is the Taiwan issue influencing China’s military development?

   Taiwan is a central focus of China’s military modernization. The PLA is developing capabilities specifically designed to deter U.S. intervention and potentially conduct an amphibious invasion of Taiwan, should Beijing choose to pursue that course of action.

3. What types of military capabilities is China prioritizing?

   China is prioritizing naval power, air force modernization, advanced missile technologies, information warfare, cyber capabilities, and space-based assets. These areas are considered crucial for modern warfare and are receiving substantial investment.

4. Are the recent leadership purges in China’s military a sign of weakness?

   While the purges create short-term disruption, the Pentagon report suggests they haven’t fundamentally derailed China’s long-term military goals. Xi Jinping’s strong control allows for these changes without necessarily slowing overall progress.

5. What are “gray zone tactics” and how is China using them?

   Gray zone tactics are actions that fall below the threshold of traditional warfare but are designed to achieve strategic objectives. China employs these tactics through economic coercion, cyberattacks, and the use of maritime militias.