Rising global temperatures are redistributing the risk of childhood malaria across sub-Saharan Africa, creating areas of new risk in the eastern and southern parts of the continent while providing relief hotspots in western regions, according to a study published in Nature. The research investigates the historical and future impacts of climate change on childhood malaria in sub-Saharan Africa, where most cases and deaths occur.
New Study Maps Climate-Driven Shift in Childhood Malaria Risk
The World Health Organization (WHO) estimated that 610,000 people died from malaria in 2024. In that same year, Africa accounted for 95 per cent of all malaria cases and deaths, with children under the age of five making up three-quarters of African malaria deaths. The disease is transmitted to humans by mosquito bites, and the insects require stagnant or slow-moving water to lay eggs while thriving in high temperatures.
Historical Analysis and Attribution Methods
To conduct the analysis, scientists utilized an extensive database of malaria prevalence. The dataset incorporates more than 50,000 prevalence surveys collected at thousands of georeferenced locations between 1900 and 2016. Researchers used standardized estimates of malaria prevalence specifically for children aged two to 10 years old.
By applying attribution science—a field using models to compare conditions in a warming world with a counterfactual world without global warming—the authors separated climatic factors from social and economic drivers.
The study found that since 1900, climate change has averaged one extra case of malaria for every 1,000 children in sub-Saharan Africa. However, continent-wide averages mask contrasting regional trends. Cooler parts of Africa face growing risks as temperatures become more suitable for malaria-carrying mosquitoes, whereas warmer regions experience suppressed transmission.
Future Projections and Regional Impacts
Looking ahead toward 2100, rising temperatures are expected to push temperatures above the optimum range for mosquitoes in current hotbeds, reducing malaria rates on average across the continent. According to co-author Tamma Carleton, faculty head of research for the Climate Impact Lab and assistant professor at the University of California, Berkeley, We see relief in the current hotspots and new risk nearly everywhere else.
In large West African nations such as Nigeria, Burkina Faso, and Mali, climate change is projected to reduce cases by 5 percent. In extremely hot Sahelian countries like Niger, Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, and Somalia, the disease may be fully eliminated as temperatures become too hot for the parasite and vectors to flourish. Conversely, cooler regions where malaria is less prevalent today—such as southern Africa, high-elevation East Africa, Angola, Zambia, and northeast South Africa—face growing suitability. Cases could increase by 5 percent in the Ethiopian highlands, Kenya, and Burundi, and rise by up to 20 percent by 2100 in areas like the Rift Valley and coastal southern Africa.
Public Health Adaptation and Weather Extremes
Experts emphasize that climate change is not the primary driver of shifting malaria risks, as government policy and public health measures exert a more significant influence.
Furthermore, extreme weather events driven by a warming climate—such as flooding and cyclones—pose severe threats by damaging housing and disrupting prevention and treatment programs.
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