Forests, fuel and food: Is expanding oil palm to Indonesia’s Papua worth the cost?

CAMBRIDGE – President Prabowo Subianto recently proposed planting oil palm in Papua to increase biofuel production and lessen Indonesia’s reliance on fuel imports, a move that raises concerns about the potential trade-offs between energy security and the broader ecological and social value of the region’s forests.

Oil Palm Expansion and Indonesia’s Energy Needs

Indonesia currently spends hundreds of trillions of rupiah annually on fuel subsidies and imports, making a strengthened domestic energy supply a key policy priority. In 2023, the country produced 47 million tonnes of crude palm oil, representing roughly 54 percent of global exports and solidifying its position as the world’s largest producer. Oil palm offers high yields per hectare and supports millions of livelihoods, serving as a strategic input for biodiesel.

The Cost of Forest Conversion

However, expanding oil palm into forested regions like Papua fundamentally alters the policy considerations. The question shifts from simply how much fuel can be produced to the associated costs and long-term implications. Indonesia’s forests, covering 63 percent of the land, are not simply “idle assets” but complex ecological systems providing essential services such as regulating water flows, preventing soil erosion, storing carbon, moderating local climates, and sustaining biodiversity.

Impact on Local Livelihoods and Ecosystems

In Papua, forests are integral to indigenous food systems, including sago cultivation, hunting, and fishing, which are central to local livelihoods and nutrition. These contributions are often excluded from GDP calculations and energy balance sheets, leading to policies that may undervalue the broader economic and social worth of standing forests. Clearing forests can lead to increased exposure to floods and droughts, reduced agricultural productivity, and increased public spending on disaster response and infrastructure repair.

Recent flooding disasters in Sumatra, linked to deforestation and land-use change, exemplify these risks, resulting in over 1,000 deaths, thousands of injuries, and hundreds of thousands of destroyed homes.

Redefining Security

The debate must move beyond energy security alone, recognizing that security now encompasses food security, human security, and environmental security – the conditions necessary for people to live safely, maintain sustainable livelihoods, and withstand shocks. Forest loss weakens these dimensions by increasing disaster risk and exposing communities to instability.

Papua’s Unique Vulnerability

Papua is particularly vulnerable due to its large remaining intact forests and critical role in regional hydrological regulation. Large-scale land conversion carries heightened risks of ecological disruption and social conflict, especially given the complexity of land tenure systems and insufficient protection of customary rights. The potential loss of endemic species, such as birds of paradise and giant butterflies, represents an irreversible loss beyond economic gains.

Lessons from Other Regions

Experience from other forest frontier regions indicates that plantation expansion often yields uneven outcomes, with national-level benefits accruing through exports and energy supply, while local communities bear the costs of land dispossession, loss of traditional food sources, and environmental degradation. This can deepen inequality and erode trust in government.

Sustainable Alternatives

Improving productivity on existing plantations and restoring degraded lands offer viable pathways to increase output without further deforestation, provided strong governance, environmental safeguards, and genuine community consent are in place. The central policy question is not whether palm oil can contribute to energy security, but where and how expansion should occur.

Treating intact forests, particularly in Papua, as reserves for future fuel production risks prioritizing short-term fiscal relief over long-term food, human, and environmental security. Early signals from the new administration emphasize resilience and self-reliance, requiring recognition that forests are national assets whose value extends beyond immediate commodity output.

In the case of expanding oil palm in Papua, energy gains purchased at the expense of food, environmental, and human security are unlikely to be worth the cost. Just as a tree cannot grow without strong roots, economic development strategies cannot be sustained if they undermine their own ecological foundations.