The death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei marks a pivotal moment in Iranian history, and potentially, for the entire region. The strikes, widely attributed to a joint U.S.-Israeli operation, have removed a figure who, for decades, has been the central architect of Iran’s foreign policy and domestic control. The immediate question is not simply who will succeed him, but how the succession will unfold amidst heightened tensions and the very real threat of retaliation.

In this special episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Ali Vaez, Crisis Group’s Iran director, to dissect the implications of Khamenei’s death. They explore the potential power struggles within the Iranian regime, the impact on Iran’s nuclear program, and the likelihood of a measured versus aggressive response. Vaez highlights the complexities of Iranian decision-making, noting that while a swift, overwhelming retaliation is possible, internal divisions and a calculated assessment of risk could lead to a more nuanced approach.

The conversation then shifts to the Gulf states, with Yasmine Farouk, director for the Gulf and Arabian Peninsula at Crisis Group, providing critical insight into their reactions. Farouk details the deep-seated anxieties among Gulf leaders, who fear being caught in the crossfire of a potential U.S.-Iran conflict. She explains that while many Gulf states privately welcomed Khamenei’s removal, they are now bracing for a period of heightened instability and are actively seeking diplomatic channels to de-escalate the situation.

The episode also addresses the critical question of Iran’s missile capabilities. The strikes reportedly targeted key infrastructure related to Iran’s ballistic missile program, but the extent of the damage remains unclear. Vaez cautions that even a degraded missile capability still poses a significant threat, and that Iran’s proxies throughout the region could be activated to carry out attacks against U.S. and Israeli interests.

What does the future hold? The experts agree that the next few weeks will be critical. The success of de-escalation efforts will depend on a combination of factors, including clear communication between Washington and Tehran, restraint from all parties, and a willingness to engage in diplomatic dialogue. However, the risk of miscalculation and unintended consequences remains high.

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The current situation raises profound questions about the future of regional security. Will Khamenei’s death lead to a more moderate Iran, or will it embolden hardliners? And what role will external actors, such as China and Russia, play in shaping the outcome?

Considering the volatile nature of the region, what steps can international policymakers take to prevent a full-scale war? And how can the humanitarian consequences of a potential conflict be mitigated?