Quaest: Tarifaço pesa mais contra Flávio Bolsonaro do que contra Lula

Public Perception and the Responsibility for Tariffs

Public opinion regarding the trade dispute remains divided, though a majority of citizens lean toward the government’s narrative. According to data released by Quaest on Thursday, July 16, 2026, 51% of respondents agree with the administration’s claim that Flávio Bolsonaro instigated the sanctions by lobbying Donald Trump. In contrast, 30% of those surveyed support the version presented by Flávio Bolsonaro, who contends that the tariffs are a direct result of President Lula’s own provocations toward the United States.

The survey, which was commissioned by Genial Investimentos and conducted between July 10 and July 13 among 2,004 voters, shows a shift in sentiment compared to June, when 47% of respondents blamed Flávio Bolsonaro and 35% sided with his defense. The poll carries a margin of error of two percentage points and a 95% confidence level, registered with the TSE under number BR-07181/2026. When asked about the specific motivation behind the tariffs, 49% of participants identified the measures as retaliation for Brazil’s Pix payment system, while 33% attributed them to the president’s foreign policy statements. Despite Flávio Bolsonaro’s reported efforts to travel to the United States to treat the theme directly with Trump, 57% of Brazilians said they were unaware of the trip. Among those who are aware, 58% believe he does not have the strength to convince Trump and the American government to review the tariffs, compared to 34% who believe he does.

Government Response and the Law of Reciprocity

The Brazilian government formally repudiated the 25% tariff announcement in a statement released early Thursday, July 16. Citing the U.S. surplus with Brazil, the government stated there is no justification for the new taxes. Officials from the Secretariat of Social Communication emphasized that the country does not recognize the legitimacy of investigations conducted without adherence to multilateral trade rules. According to the government’s statement, Brazil will immediately begin procedures to invoke the Law of Reciprocity, a measure approved unanimously by Congress in 2025 to respond to unilateral actions harming national competitiveness. This legislation allows for counter-measures including import tariffs, the suspension of commercial concessions, and measures related to intellectual property.

“O Brasil não reconhece a legitimidade de investigações sem amparo nas regras multilaterais de comércio. Apesar disso, nunca deixamos a mesa de negociação para defender os interesses nacionais.”

Secretaria de Comunicação Social

In addition to these measures, the administration indicated it would seek recourse through the World Trade Organization’s dispute settlement mechanism. The government also characterized the allegations regarding Brazil’s Pix system and digital platform regulations as “descabidas” (unfounded), while labeling accusations concerning deforestation as “absurdas” (absurd). The government noted that it had spent recent months working with the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) to end the investigations based on Section 301, presenting evidence to refute allegations of unfair trade practices.

Economic Impact and Political Polarization

The political fallout has intensified alongside concerns over the personal economic impact of the trade war. The Quaest survey found that 63% of Brazilians believe the new tariffs imposed by Trump on Brazilian products will negatively affect their personal or family finances, up from 55% in the June survey.

The government’s communiqué took a sharp tone toward the opposition, labeling those who support the tariffs as “falsos patriotas” (false patriots) motivated by electoral goals. The statement emphasized that the defense of national sovereignty remains a priority that transcends political factions.

“Não se pode amar o Brasil apenas quando vencemos eleições. Proteger a nossa soberania é uma obrigação que está acima de todos os partidos e todas as tendências.”

Secretaria de Comunicação Social

The administration further stated it intends to continue diversifying markets and supporting affected Brazilian sectors through the Plano Brasil Soberano. The decision represents a defeat for the efforts of the Lula government, as well as companies and business entities in both countries, to avoid an escalation in the trade dispute between Brasília and Washington. While the effective reach of the tariffs will depend on the final definition of the products affected and potential exceptions, initial reports indicate that coffee and meat should be excluded from the tariffs in a first moment.

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