Scientists Warn 2026 Could Become Hottest Year on Record Due to El Niño

El Niño’s Role in Heat Projections

El Niño, a natural phenomenon characterized by the warming of equatorial Pacific waters, is forecast to be one of the strongest on record, amplifying global temperatures. Climate scientists, including former NASA researcher James Hansen, argue that the current heat is driven by long-term human-caused warming, with El Niño acting as a contributing factor. The driver of the record warmth is climate change in the background, Hansen said, noting that El Niño’s impact typically lags behind oceanic heat accumulation by about a month and a half.

The U.N. World Meteorological Organization has warned that El Niño is inside the house and turning up the heat, with forecasts predicting record-breaking temperatures across the globe. Zachary Labe of Climate Central emphasized that the oceans—over 70% of the planet’s surface—continue to set new heat records, with 82% of the ocean surface experiencing marine heat waves this year, according to Europe’s Copernicus climate service.

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Current Heat vs. Future Projections

This summer has already seen extreme weather events, including record-breaking temperatures in South Korea, France, and the U.S., as well as widespread wildfires in Europe and North America. However, scientists stress that much of this heat is attributed to human-driven climate change, not yet fully influenced by El Niño. The fires, heat, and extremes that have dominated the summer of 2026 are what scientists have long been warning about from the burning of coal, oil, and gas, said Zeke Hausfather of Berkeley Earth.

Despite the current heat, projections suggest 2026 may still surpass 2024 as the hottest year. Climate modeler Hausfather estimates a 35% chance of this outcome, up from 7% in March. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) initially gave 2026 a 66% chance of being the fourth-hottest year, with only a 0.1% probability of it becoming the hottest. However, these odds are expected to rise as NOAA finalizes its July analysis.

Global Impacts and Record-Breaking Events

The summer of 2026 has already seen unprecedented heat across multiple regions. South Korea recorded its highest temperature ever at 108.5°F (42.5°C), while Western Europe endured its hottest June on record, with France experiencing its hottest day and multiple countries setting all-time highs. In the U.S., Salt Lake City hit 109°F (42.8°C), and wildfires forced over 200,000 people in France to evacuate, according to French President Emmanuel Macron.

These events align with broader trends of escalating climate extremes. The Danube River in Romania exposed previously submerged areas due to drought, and tourists in Rome sought shelter from scorching temperatures. Climate scientists warn that such conditions will intensify as El Niño gains strength, with the U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres describing the situation as a planet already on fire with scorching heat domes, apocalyptic wildfires, and record hot seas.

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2027 as a Near-Certainty for Record Heat

While uncertainty remains about 2026’s status, scientists agree that 2027 is likely to surpass all modern records for heat. Hausfather noted that even if 2026 sets a new high, it will “not last long,” as the trajectory of climate change ensures increasingly severe warming.

The interplay between El Niño and climate change underscores the urgency of addressing greenhouse gas emissions. As Hansen stated, It’s about time that the entire globe starts shattering records, with the combined effects of natural variability and human activity pushing the planet toward irreversible thresholds.