Super El Niño Forecast to Trigger Extreme Weather Across Africa and Asia

Global Meteorological Forecasts and the “Super” El Niño Risk

The United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has confirmed the rapid development of an El Niño phase, characterized by sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific rising significantly above average. According to the US Climate Prediction Center, there is an 81 percent probability that this event will become one of the most powerful since 1950.

Climate scientists describe this development as particularly dangerous due to current global baseline temperatures, which are roughly 1.4 degrees Celsius higher than preindustrial levels. We’re working with warmer baseline temperatures of around 1.4 degrees (Celsius, or 2.5 F) higher than preindustrial levels. This means that, when an El Nino event does occur, then there are more extreme outcomes, said Bhargabi Bharadwaj, a research associate at Chatham House’s Environment and Society Center, via DW. Some experts caution that this could manifest as a super or Godzilla event, potentially rivaling the intense climate shifts of the late 19th century.

Varied Impacts Across Southern and Eastern Africa

The situation in East Africa presents a more complex risk profile. While the region may experience a drier midyear, forecasters warn of a high probability of heavy rainfall and flooding between October and December. In Somalia, where heavy rains have already impacted Mogadishu, aid groups are concerned that flooding could mirror the destructive patterns seen in 1997 or 2023. Kenya’s weather service has indicated an 80-82 percent likelihood that El Niño will persist throughout the year, prompting the activation of national disaster response plans.

Agricultural Resilience and Food Security Concerns

Despite the looming threat, some analysts suggest South Africa’s agricultural sector may be better positioned than in previous drought cycles. Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz), noted that favorable rainfall in recent years has left soil moisture levels and dam volumes significantly higher than usual. When the planting period starts in October 2026, farmers across South Africa will have better-than-normal soil moisture to begin with, Sihlobo told the Cape Argus.

However, the broader outlook for food security remains precarious. The World Bank has warned that rice yields in parts of South Asia and East Africa could drop by a fifth to a half if the event fully develops. Humanitarian organizations, including the International Rescue Committee (IRC), have expressed concern that these climate-driven shocks are converging with existing humanitarian emergencies, such as conflict and high fertilizer costs.

Humanitarian Funding and Preparatory Measures

To mitigate the impact on the most vulnerable, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) have issued an appeal for over $200 million (€175 million) in funding. These resources are intended to support cash transfers, the distribution of climate-resilient seeds, and the implementation of flood-control measures across 22 high-risk countries, including Ethiopia, Nigeria, Sudan, and Zimbabwe.

Experts emphasize that the primary challenge lies in the gap between scientific forecasting and policy implementation. With the peak of the El Niño event expected later this year, the focus for both governments and aid agencies remains on acting before the most severe weather impacts materialize.

Find more reporting in our World section.