Singapore’s fertility rate has not stabilised; citizen core will shrink without action: DPM Gan

Singapore’s total fertility rate (TFR) has not stabilized despite holding steady in 2024, and without intervention, the nation’s citizen population will begin to shrink, according to Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong.

Declining Citizen Population and Economic Impact

A declining citizen population will result in Singapore losing dynamism and affecting its ability to remain competitive, DPM Gan said. The 2024 TFR was boosted by the Year of the Dragon, and the Government is currently analyzing the latest data for 2025.

“But I must say, I’m not likely to give good news on the TFR front,” DPM Gan said at the Institute of Policy Studies’ (IPS) annual Singapore Perspectives conference on January 26.

Fertility Rate Trends

The 2024 TFR was 0.97 – unchanged from 2023. The figure was 1.04 in 2022 and 1.12 in 2021, all figures remaining below the replacement rate of 2.1, which is the level needed for the population to replace itself from one generation to the next. DPM Gan noted that Dragon years typically see an increase in Singapore’s birth rate.

The unchanged TFR in 2024 means the “base has come down further” rather than indicating stabilization, he explained.

Immigration and Social Cohesion

Despite the challenges, Singapore should not abandon efforts to raise its TFR, and the country can do more to support parenthood and families, DPM Gan said, adding that falling fertility is a global phenomenon. He also noted that the growth rate of the number of Singapore citizens has slowed over the last 10 years despite immigration.

DPM Gan was responding to a question about how the Government intends to manage social cohesion between citizens and foreigners, given the low birth rate and the need for immigration. He stated that Singapore may not be able to grow its citizen population quickly, but should aim for “at least a moderate growth rate.”

Integrating New Citizens

Singapore must ensure it maintains a strong core of citizens and a “dynamic population” and society, DPM Gan said, addressing an audience of approximately 1,200 people. The key is integrating foreigners and ensuring collaboration between Singaporeans and newcomers.

The Government has implemented citizenship journeys – mandatory programs for new citizens – to help them understand Singapore’s culture, values, and practices, as well as a similar program for permanent residents. While these programs will continue to be refined, it’s important to acknowledge that new citizens come from different cultural backgrounds.

“They have spent a good part of their life in a different culture, have different practices, maybe hold different values; but the fact (is) that they have decided to become Singapore citizens, they have decided that there is something common between Singapore and them, and they want to become part of this bigger fraternity,” DPM Gan said.

The challenge lies in recognizing these differences while expanding common ground, and encouraging interaction through existing community programs.

Global Competition and the Singaporean Workforce

The global environment has shifted, with more countries producing high-quality goods at lower costs, requiring Singapore to adapt to maintain its competitive edge. DPM Gan acknowledged that Singaporeans may feel competition from fellow Singaporeans, foreigners, and new citizens.

However, he emphasized that this competition is necessary to compete globally, and workplaces must remain fair and equitable. Competition should have a purpose, anchored by family ties and relationships.