SpaceX Starlink Fleet Performed Over 355,000 Collision Avoidance Maneuvers

SpaceX Starlink fleet performs 355,000 avoidance maneuvers

Starlink Maneuver Data and Regulatory Filings

The scale of orbital adjustments required to keep the Starlink constellation safe has surged significantly. According to disclosures made by SpaceX in its latest semiannual report to the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), the company’s satellites carried out 207,152 avoidance maneuvers between December 2025 and May 2026. This figure is up nearly 60,000 from the 148,696 reported in the previous half year, bringing the yearly total to more than 355,000—more than three times as many as the constellation performed in 2024. On average, each Starlink satellite performed more than 40 space-dodging maneuvers per year.

SpaceX’s constellation orbits at altitudes between 298 miles (480 km) and 342 miles (550 kilometers) and utilizes an autonomous collision avoidance system that initiates a maneuver when the probability of a collision appears higher than 3 in 10 million. Hugh Lewis, a space sustainability expert and professor of astronautics at the University of Birmingham in the U.K., notes that while the avoidance maneuvers reduce the probability of a collision to about one in a million, the aggregate risk remains. “The problem is that if you make a million manoeuvres and you have a residual probability of one in a million, you end up with an aggregate risk across your entire constellation that you can’t get rid of,” Lewis said.

Hugh Lewis and Andy Lawrence warn of unsustainable orbital density

Expert Warnings on Orbital Density

The rapid expansion of internet-beaming constellations has sparked concerns among the scientific community regarding the long-term stability of low-Earth orbit. Over the past five years, the overall number of operational spacecraft in orbit rose from around 10,000 to about 16,000. Hugh Lewis warns that the current trend is unsustainable despite SpaceX’s technological efforts, stating: I think we’re heading towards a situation where there will be a collision involving an operational satellite in the constellation. And it will not be for the lack of trying to avoid those things. It will be in spite of all those maneuvers.

Andy Lawrence, Regius Professor of Astronomy at the University of Edinburgh, likens the situation to a “boiling the frog” problem. “You know it’s getting gradually worse, but where do you say ‘stop’, and how do you manage to make it stop?” Lawrence noted. He highlighted that at orbital velocities of at least 7.8km/s (4.8 miles/s), collisions release enormous energy, shattering spacecraft and producing debris clouds that threaten other satellites, such as the 2009 collision between Iridium 33 and the defunct Russian Cosmos 2251, which produced more than 2,000 pieces of trackable debris.

Michael Nicholls and CAS Space report 200-meter close approach

Recent Near-Misses and Coordination Challenges

Operational risks are often exacerbated by a lack of data sharing between international satellite operators. In December 2025, a Starlink satellite reportedly came within 200 meters of a satellite deployed by the Chinese competitor CAS Space. Michael Nicholls, the vice president of Starlink engineering at SpaceX, wrote on X that the incident occurred because operators did not share ephemeris data. “When satellite operators do not share ephemeris for their satellites, dangerously close approaches can occur in space,” Nicholls stated. “As far as we know, no coordination or deconfliction with existing satellites operating in space was performed, resulting in a 200 meter close approach between one of the deployed satellites and [a Starlink satellite] at 560 km altitude.”

CAS Space responded that all of its launches select launch windows using a ground-based space awareness system to avoid known satellites and debris, calling it a “mandatory procedure.” This follows other documented close calls, such as the January 2023 incident where the decommissioned IRAS space telescope came within 15–30m of the inoperable GGSE-4 satellite, and a February 2023 incident where NASA’s non-manoeuvrable TIMED satellite passed 10–20m from the defunct Russian satellite Cosmos 2221. Commenting on such conjunctions, the space tracking company LeoLabs posted on X: “Too close for comfort.”

SpaceX applies to FCC to reach 100,000 satellites

Operational Stakes and Future Projections

The reliance on satellite constellations for global navigation, telecommunications, and climate observation data means that a major collision could have severe consequences for essential services. Additionally, astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell revealed that one to two satellites from SpaceX’s constellation re-enter Earth’s atmosphere every single day.

Looking ahead, the pressure on these systems is expected to intensify. SpaceX has applied to the FCC to increase the size of its constellation to 100,000 satellites. Lewis points out that if this continues, SpaceX will have made a million avoidance maneuvers over the lifetime of the Starlink constellation as early as June 2027. By 2030, the constellation may be making more than a million maneuvers every year.

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