Stratechery, after 13 years, has returned to its roots in the United States, marking a significant shift for the publication and a potentially telling indicator of where the center of gravity in the tech industry is shifting. While the move itself is a personal update for author Ben Thompson, it coincides with a year dominated by two seemingly disparate, yet increasingly intertwined, narratives: the explosive growth of AI and growing anxieties about American manufacturing competitiveness. This isn’t a coincidence. The success of AI, and whether the US can truly capitalize on it, hinges on a robust domestic industrial base – a reality Washington is only now grappling with.
- The Return Home: Stratechery’s relocation signals a renewed focus on the US tech landscape, likely driven by the intensifying competition and policy debates surrounding AI.
- AI & Manufacturing: The parallel rise of AI and manufacturing concerns highlights a critical dependency: AI needs hardware, and that hardware needs to be built.
- The Central Question: Can America build what it needs to fully leverage the potential of AI, or will it become reliant on others for the foundational components of this technological revolution?
The Deep Dive: A Year of Contrasts
2025 was a year of stark contrasts. On one hand, we saw continued breakthroughs in AI, exemplified by companies like DeepSeek challenging conventional wisdom about the pace of innovation and the competitive landscape with China. The analysis of OpenAI, Nvidia, and Google revealed a power struggle not just for market share, but for control of the AI stack. The emergence of “agentic web” concepts, while promising, underscored the need for new infrastructure – specifically, robust digital payment systems – to unlock their full potential. Meanwhile, Apple’s struggles with AI integration, detailed throughout the year, served as a cautionary tale about the challenges of adapting to paradigm shifts.
Simultaneously, a growing chorus of voices raised concerns about the erosion of American manufacturing capabilities. The debate over Intel, and the potential for government equity stakes, highlighted the desperation to bolster domestic chip production. This isn’t simply about semiconductors; it’s about a broader recognition that reliance on foreign supply chains creates vulnerabilities, particularly in strategically important sectors like AI. The analysis of TSMC’s earnings and advancements in backside power technology further emphasized the critical importance of leading-edge manufacturing.
The Forward Look: Building for an AI Future
The key takeaway from 2025 isn’t just that AI is transforming the tech landscape, but that its success is inextricably linked to the revitalization of American manufacturing. The US government’s recent decision to allow H200 sales to China, while pragmatic in the short term, underscores the delicate balancing act between economic interests and national security. Expect increased scrutiny of technology exports and further investment in domestic chip production, potentially through expanded incentives and strategic partnerships.
Apple’s struggles are particularly instructive. The company’s traditional strength lies in hardware-software integration, but its reliance on external suppliers for key components leaves it vulnerable. The company will likely need to significantly alter its strategy, potentially investing more heavily in internal chip design and manufacturing capabilities, or forging deeper partnerships with domestic foundries. The future of Apple, and potentially other tech giants, depends on their ability to navigate this new reality.
Finally, the interviews conducted throughout the year – with CEOs from ServiceNow to Rivian, and analysts like Benedict Evans and Eric Seufert – consistently pointed to the same conclusion: AI is not just a technological revolution, it’s an industrial one. The companies that succeed will be those that can not only innovate at the software level, but also build and control the underlying infrastructure. Expect 2026 to be a year of increased investment, strategic realignment, and intense competition as companies race to secure their place in the AI-powered future. The question isn’t just *who* will win the AI race, but *where* that race will be won – and whether America can build the foundation for its own success.
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