The New START Treaty: A History of Nuclear Restraint

The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) originally entered into force in February 2011 and limits the number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads, intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and heavy bombers that the US and Russia can possess. It represents decades of effort to reduce the risk of nuclear conflict and build trust between the two nations.

Prior to New START, the original START treaty, signed in 1991, laid the groundwork for verifiable reductions in nuclear arsenals. However, that treaty expired in 2009. The absence of a successor agreement for a period heightened concerns about transparency and predictability in the nuclear realm. New START restored a crucial element of stability, allowing for regular inspections and data exchanges to verify compliance.

The Implications of Non-Renewal

The expiration of New START without a replacement would remove the last formal constraints on the size of the US and Russian nuclear arsenals. While both countries are likely to maintain a degree of strategic stability through deterrence, the lack of transparency and verification mechanisms could increase the risk of miscalculation and escalation. Some analysts fear a return to the Cold War-era dynamic of unchecked arms buildup.

Beyond the direct impact on US-Russia relations, the collapse of New START could also undermine the broader international non-proliferation regime. Other nations might be less inclined to adhere to nuclear arms control commitments if the two major nuclear powers are not doing so themselves. Arms Control Association provides detailed information on the treaty’s provisions and history.

What role should international organizations play in mediating these critical discussions? And how can public pressure influence the decisions of world leaders regarding nuclear arms control?

The current geopolitical climate, marked by heightened tensions and mistrust, further complicates the situation. The war in Ukraine has significantly strained relations between Russia and the West, making dialogue on arms control more difficult. However, many experts argue that maintaining communication channels on nuclear issues is more important than ever, even in times of crisis. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace offers analysis on the geopolitical factors influencing the treaty’s future.

Frequently Asked Questions About the New START Treaty

• What is the New START treaty’s primary goal?

  The New START treaty aims to limit the number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads, ICBMs, SLBMs, and heavy bombers held by the United States and Russia, promoting stability and reducing the risk of nuclear conflict.

• Why is the expiration of New START a concern?

  The expiration of New START would remove the last remaining verifiable limits on the US and Russian nuclear arsenals, potentially leading to a new arms race and increased global insecurity.

• What has been Russia’s response to the lack of a US reply?

  Russia has expressed frustration and concern over the perceived silence from the United States regarding its proposal for a one-year extension of the New START treaty.

• Could the war in Ukraine impact the future of New START?

  Yes, the war in Ukraine has significantly strained relations between Russia and the West, making dialogue on arms control more challenging and increasing the risk of the treaty’s collapse.

• What are the potential consequences of a renewed arms race?

  A renewed arms race could divert resources from other critical areas, increase the risk of accidental or intentional nuclear conflict, and undermine global stability.