Australia’s central regions are experiencing unusually high rainfall, with some areas poised to receive a year’s worth of rain in the coming weeks, potentially averting the driest summer in over a century for parts of South Australia and Victoria.
A Month for the History Books
The driest belt of Australia is currently in its wettest month in decades, and weather modeling indicates the outback rain will reach southern Australia this weekend. Rainfall across northern South Australia and adjacent parts of Queensland, the Northern Territory and Western Australia averages less than 200mm per year, decreasing to around 150mm near Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre.
So far this February, much of central Australia has already received 100–200mm. Mount Denison, 250 kilometres north-west of Alice Springs, has recorded 349mm, just 12mm shy of its wettest month since February 1982. More rain is expected throughout the remainder of the month, potentially boosting totals by hundreds of millimetres.
The next seven days could bring a year’s worth of rain to parts of the central and eastern outback. (ABC News)
Oodnadatta could finish the month with above 150mm for the first time since March 1989, and some areas may see totals close to 300mm, approaching all-time records. The drenching is attributed to humid tropical air penetrating the arid interior, a phenomenon considered overdue given the months-long La Niña state of the Pacific Ocean.
Rain Saves Southern Summer
While earlier this month’s rain largely bypassed drought-affected areas of southern Australia, a plume of moisture will send a rainband across South Australia, Victoria, and southern New South Wales on Sunday. The best falls, up to about 20mm, are expected from inland South Australia to the Murray River, with patchier falls closer to the coastline.
A few thunderstorms are also expected, raising the possibility of localised heavy falls and flash flooding. A second band of precipitation will follow on Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms that could linger over south-east Australia for several days, potentially delivering moderate totals to much of southern inland South Australia, Victoria, and far west New South Wales. Weekly totals could reach around 50mm, or more in some areas.
Model data shows the potential for up to 50mm of rain across drought-ravaged parts of southern Australia in the next week. (ABC News)
There is even a slight risk of 100mm totals around the Flinders districts of South Australia. Peterborough last recorded over 100mm in a month a decade ago, while Port Augusta’s last such event was in 2014.
Flood Watch for Dozens of Inland Rivers
The extensive rainfall has led to flood watches being issued for dozens of inland catchments, covering an area larger than Greenland. Many typically dry creeks and rivers are already flowing, and river and creek levels are expected to rise, potentially isolating communities as roads become submerged. While the long-range outlook for autumn and winter favours below-average rain, the medium-range outlook for early March suggests wet conditions could persist.
A flood watch is current for many river catchments of WA, the NT and SA, while Queensland has both flood watches and warnings. (ABC News)
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