The Real War for Iran’s Future

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei died on March 1, 2026, state media announced, paving the way for his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, to assume the position just over a week later. The death of Khamenei, who ruled Iran for over 35 years, has created a power vacuum and a period of uncertainty for the Islamic Republic.

Khamenei’s Legacy

The state broadcaster lauded Khamenei for being “unceasing and untiring” and for his “lofty and celestial spirit,” while people offscreen wailed during the announcement. However, many Iranians likely did not mourn his passing. Khamenei transformed the theocracy established by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini into the country it is today, ensuring the supreme leader remained Iran’s paramount authority.

He also pushed Iran to pursue regional hegemony, leading to perpetual conflict with Israel and the United States, and transformed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) into a central pillar of the government.

Power Struggle and the Rise of the IRGC

The Iranian elite quickly moved to name a replacement, with the Assembly of Experts appointing Mojtaba Khamenei. However, analysts predict a power vacuum, as the elder Khamenei possessed the experience and standing to manage the regime’s various factions. As a result, top Iranian officials are now vying to shape the country’s future.

Currently, those affiliated with the IRGC, including Mojtaba Khamenei, are best positioned to succeed. The IRGC, as Iran’s strongest armed actor, has the resources to impose its will. This could lead to a continuation of Tehran’s antagonistic stance toward Israel, the United States, and pro-democracy elements within the country.

Potential for Reform

Despite the IRGC’s strength, its policies have failed to protect or benefit the Iranian people, and are viewed as a dead end by reformists within the regime. Reformists, including current officials and former presidents, could potentially chart a more accommodating course, potentially trading the nuclear program and regional aggression for economic relief.

However, pragmatists face an uphill battle, lacking the armed power of the hard-liners and having lost trust with the Iranian people due to their handling of past protests. The recent strikes by the U.S. and Israel have decimated the ranks of hard-liners, potentially creating an opportunity for reformists to take power.

A History of Ascent

Khamenei was not initially destined to be supreme leader. During the 1979 revolution, he was a midlevel cleric, less prominent than figures like Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the speaker of parliament, who was Khomeini’s most trusted hand. Khomeini sidelined clergy who could challenge his authority, including Grand Ayatollah Kazem Shariat-Madari and Ayatollah Hussein Ali Montazeri.

As Khomeini’s health failed in 1989, he found no viable successors with the necessary religious credentials and political support. He then had the constitution rewritten to allow any midlevel cleric who backed the Islamist system and understood geopolitics to succeed him, opening the door for Khamenei.

Rafsanjani initially considered seeking the position himself but ultimately decided to run for president, believing the presidency would hold more authority after Khomeini’s death. He lobbied for Khamenei’s appointment, and Khomeini agreed.

The Khamenei-IRGC Partnership

After becoming supreme leader, Khamenei lacked popular support and legitimacy. He forged a partnership with the IRGC, which was also seeking a political ally after the costly Iran-Iraq War. Khamenei supported the IRGC’s domestic agenda, focusing on conservative Islamic mores, and the IRGC used its power to suppress reformist figures.

By the start of the millennium, this partnership had solidified the rule of hard-liners in Tehran. The IRGC repeatedly suppressed pro-reform demonstrations and blocked meaningful changes to the country.

Delusions of Grandeur and Recent Setbacks

Khamenei and the IRGC shared a vision of making Iran a great military power and challenging the United States and Israel. Iran invested heavily in missiles, drones, and nuclear enrichment, leading to sanctions and economic decline.

Iran’s expansionism and the conflicts it fueled empowered the IRGC, but also led to international setbacks. Following Hamas’s attack on Israel in October 2023, Israel repeatedly struck Hezbollah, IRGC positions in Syria, and the Houthis. In February 2026, strikes killed Khamenei and other officials, degrading Iran’s military capabilities.

The Future of Iran

Khamenei’s death has opened the door to change, but the IRGC is now more powerful than ever. The new supreme leader will likely be an agent of the IRGC. This could mean less power for elected officials and a continuation of Iran’s belligerent foreign policy.

However, the IRGC’s policies have also weakened its position, and there are opportunities for reformists to gain influence. Pragmatists like President Masoud Pezeshkian could appeal to the Iranian people and push for economic improvements and a more peaceful foreign policy.

Ordinary Iranians, particularly the bazaaris, labor groups, and younger generation, could also play a crucial role in shaping Iran’s future. If reformists can gain their support, Iran could potentially pursue a path of compromise and economic development.