Beyond Declining Circulation: A Structural Shift in Timber Supply

For years, the print industry has focused on mitigating the effects of falling readership. However, a far more profound disruption is brewing. This isn’t a temporary supply chain hiccup; it’s a structural change driven by competing land uses and evolving economic realities for forest owners.

Hasulyó emphasizes that while publishers are accustomed to navigating regulations like the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) and acknowledging the impact of climate change, they’ve largely ignored the growing competition for timber. Forest owners across Europe are increasingly questioning the financial benefits of selling to paper mills when alternative revenue streams are becoming more attractive.

These alternatives include lucrative carbon credit schemes that reward forest preservation, attractive lease offers from solar developers, and EU policies promoting land set-asides for biodiversity. In Finland, timber trade volume plummeted by 42% in the third quarter of 2025 – not due to a lack of trees, but because landowners chose not to sell at prevailing prices. Why would a Swedish forest owner sell timber to a struggling sawmill when they can generate income from carbon credits, solar leases, and biodiversity payments without the complexities of harvesting?

Currently, timber sales still account for 80% of forestry industry revenue, according to a recent European Commission study. But the tide is turning. The industry is shifting towards valuing “living trees” over “dead trees” – a fundamental change that directly impacts the print industry’s raw material supply.

The Collision of Sustainability Policies

The challenges aren’t isolated; they’re amplified by conflicting EU policies. The EU Biodiversity Strategy aims to protect 30% of land, while the Nature Restoration Law promotes rewilding. Simultaneously, the Renewable Energy Directive incentivizes burning wood for energy, and LULUCF regulations demand increased carbon sinks. These objectives are inherently contradictory: you can’t maximize carbon storage, renewable energy production, material substitution, and biodiversity simultaneously.

The result is a significant price disparity. European softwood fiber prices are already substantially higher than those in North America. Rising energy costs are accelerating mill closures. And the full impact of the Nature Restoration Law is yet to be felt. European graphic paper mills are operating at around 65% capacity – a precarious survival mode where any further constraint on fiber supply could push them into permanent closure.

A New Kind of Supply Crisis

Past paper shortages were typically logistical – a port closure, a transportation strike. The wood was available; it simply needed to move. This crisis is fundamentally different. Three converging shifts are reshaping the landscape.

1. The Loss of Russian Timber: The EU ban on Russian timber imports created a significant supply gap, forcing countries like Finland to dramatically increase domestic harvesting.
2. Disappearing Mill Capacity: Mill closures are accelerating. In 2025 alone, facilities in Germany, Finland, and Canada shuttered, eliminating over a million tonnes of European paper capacity. Fewer mills mean less resilience to supply disruptions.
3. Empowered Forest Owners: Forest owners now have options. Unlike in 1990, when a Finnish landowner had one customer – the wood buyer – today they’re courted by carbon credit aggregators, solar developers, conservation groups, and bioenergy plants.

This isn’t a supply chain problem; it’s a supply structure problem.

Are Publishers Misreading the Signals?

Many publishers are interpreting current price volatility as a short-term disruption, clinging to the belief that market conditions will eventually normalize. They anticipate a recovery in construction, stabilization of energy prices, and a post-COVID correction. However, this perspective ignores the underlying trends.

European graphic paper demand fell another 10% in the third quarter of 2025, a continuation of a twenty-year decline accelerated by digitalization. Mill closures aren’t driven by temporary conditions; they’re a response to a shrinking market. Companies like Stora Enso, UPM, and International Paper are fundamentally repositioning away from graphic grades, signaling a long-term shift.

Those publishers who recognize this reality are diversifying suppliers, securing long-term contracts, and forging relationships beyond traditional channels. Those who wait for “normal” to return may find that “normal” no longer exists.

What do you think the long-term implications of these changes will be for smaller, independent publishers?

How can the print industry proactively engage with policymakers and landowners to ensure a sustainable fiber supply?

Frequently Asked Questions

• What is the biggest threat to paper supply in Europe?

  The biggest threat isn’t a lack of trees, but the changing economic incentives for forest owners, who now have more profitable alternatives to selling timber to paper mills.

• How are EU policies impacting timber availability for the print industry?

  Conflicting EU policies – focused on biodiversity, renewable energy, and carbon storage – are creating constraints on timber harvesting and increasing fiber prices.

• What is the difference between this paper shortage and previous ones?

  Previous shortages were logistical; this is a structural shift driven by fundamental changes in forest economics and land use.

• Why are European mills struggling compared to North American mills?

  European mills face higher softwood fiber prices and energy costs, making them less competitive in a global market.

• What can publishers do to mitigate the risk of timber supply disruptions?

  Publishers should diversify their paper sourcing, secure long-term contracts, and build relationships with multiple suppliers.