Increase in food prices can lead to stunted growth in children

Economic crises can have lasting negative health consequences, particularly for urban populations and those with limited education, according to a new study examining the impact of the 1990s Asian financial crisis. Researchers at the University of Bonn found that a surge in rice prices during the crisis led to increased child stunting and a higher risk of obesity later in life.

Long-Term Effects of the Asian Financial Crisis

Researchers from the Center for Development Research (ZEF) at the University of Bonn evaluated data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS), tracking households over many years. They correlated regional differences in rice price inflation between 1997 and 2000 with the body measurements of individuals throughout childhood and into young adulthood.

We see that a massive price shock not only has a short-term impact, but can also affect the long-term physical development of children. The crisis-induced price rise increased chronic malnutrition and was associated with a 3.5 percentage point increase in child stunting. Children severely affected will not only remain shorter than their unaffected peers later in life, they will also be significantly more prone to obesity.

Elza S. Elmira, study’s lead author

The researchers were surprised by the correlation between stunting and later obesity. They suggest that during times of crisis, families tend to reduce consumption of nutrient-rich foods more than calorie intake, leading to “hidden deficiencies” that slow growth without necessarily reducing body weight.

Protecting Children During Economic Turmoil

“Deprivation in early childhood can have lifelong effects – growth disorders are easier to measure but are often accompanied by mental development impairments and an increased risk of obesity and chronic diseases,” says Prof. Dr. Matin Qaim, co-author of the study. “In the same crisis, undernutrition and obesity can both increase. This underscores the importance of nutrition-sensitive crisis policy: it must specifically protect children in sensitive development stages. If food policy is only concerned about calories, it can miss the real problem.”

Urban Areas and Education Levels

The effects of price increases were more pronounced in urban areas, where households rely more on purchasing food, and among children of mothers with lower levels of education. “The results suggest that crisis aid should not be based solely on poverty lines,” emphasize Elmira and Qaim. “Especially in cities and in places with low knowledge about balanced diets, a price shock can worsen the quality of nutrition such that the consequences are long term and irreversible.”

Relevance to Current Global Challenges

The Bonn researchers note that harvest, income, and price shocks are becoming more frequent globally due to conflicts, pandemics, and extreme weather events. The analysis from Indonesia provides evidence of how economic turmoil can translate into long-term health risks through food prices.

The study’s results are interpreted as statistical correlations, and the researchers acknowledge that it is difficult to rule out all potentially confounding influences over long periods of time.