In the second quarter “the fall in activity is accentuated”, with a 21.6% drop in industrial production after the -8.4% recorded in the first three months of the year. The Confindustria Study Center calculates this by noting an 18.9% decrease in industrial production in June compared to the same month in 2019 and a rebound of + 3.9% compared to the previous month. Data that arrive after the trend in May which saw a tendential decline of 29.1% and in cyclical terms a recovery of + 32.1%. “In the two months of the survey, activity registers a recovery from the lows reached in April, even if compared to a year ago the decrease is still particularly deep”, indicate the economists of via dell’Astronomia.
Several factors still weigh: exports are held back by the virus emergency in countries such as the US and South America, fear of the risk of a worsening of the infections after the summer which slows down consumption and investments affects the internal consumption. While fears about employment push families to save more. “At this stage – the economists of via dell’Astronomia warn – the trust of businesses and families is the determining factor for the restart.
In the absence of an improvement in the internal and international conditions that fuel this confidence, the effectiveness of demand support policies risks being very limited and further increasing savings, partially negating the efforts made so far “.
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