indexing will cost 9 billion-

Among the first issues that the new government elected after the elections of 25 September will have to address that relating to pension expenditure, which is also increasing due to the indexation of pensions. The automatic mechanism of increase in social security checks to adjust them to the drastic increase in consumer prices and of the dear life, in fact, is scheduled every year in January. In recent weeks, the concern about the effect that this could have on public accounts has come from the technicians of the State General Accounting Office and from INPS.

The alarm

The Parliamentary Budget Office in its report of 13 September raised the alarm, because according to estimates an inflation that exceeds 8% risks having an impact on pension expenditure that is hardly less than 25 billion euros. The Accounting Office, however, already at the end of July, in the usual update of the medium-long term trends of the pension system, had made public the estimates according to which the high cost of living could have an impact on the resources used equal to 0.7% of GDP in the next two years. It could take about twenty years to reabsorb its effect, producing an average annual “burden” growth of 0.4% of GDP in the period between 2022 and 2045.


It is likely that in the next budget law the indexation of pensions will require a commitment of between 8 and 10 billion euros for 2023, a figure that will add to the higher costs already budgeted by the legislation in force, also provided for by the drafted and signed last April, and to the measure included in the Aid bis decree which consists in the revaluation of 2% of pensions starting from October 1st, including the thirteenth, and the advance of the balance (even if compared to the previous versions of the text the number of beneficiaries has been restricted and the increase “is recognized if the monthly pension is equal to or less than the total amount of 2,692 euros gross per month”). Its value should be slightly less than € 2 billion.

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The proposals of the parties

After the elections of 25 September, the political forces that will win may have many difficulties in keeping the promises made during the electoral campaign on the subject of pensions, in particular delaying or completely avoiding the return into force of the Fornero law with the different options: Lega, for example, is the promoter of Quota 41, that is to retire with 41 years of contributions regardless of age. The Democratic Party, on the other hand, has proposed a reinforced fourteenth, while the Brothers of Italy calls for the stop of the automatic mechanism for adjusting pensions to life expectancy.