Kofola esSlovakia: estimates for 3Q 2021

22.11.2021 10:06, BABKOFOL

Kofola eskoSlovensko on Wednesday, November 24, before the opening of the market, will publish the financial results for 3Q 2021, resp. 9M 2021. A conference call with the company’s management will follow from 3 p.m.

Estimates managed for 3Q 2021
thousand. K 3Q 2021 Market consensus 3Q 2020

and / and

Inputs 2137 2081 2,7 %
EBITDA 499 557 -10,4 %
EBIT 344 400 -14,0 %
is zisk
252 312 -19,2 %
Earnings per share (K)
11,3 14,0 -19,2 %

Note: the results are one-off effects

According to our opinion, Kofola was very solid for this year’s quarter. At the same time, a very strong leveling stock could be met, resp. it would be very good, which would mean a very good level of sales, when the results for 3Q 2020 were record-breaking. At the level of operating profitability, Kofola in particular will not be able to match the record record of CZK 557 million, which will be hampered mainly by rising material costs, but we would still rate EBITDA for 3Q 2021 at CZK 499 million.

The driving force behind this dynamic will be the Adriatic region this time, ie sales in Slovenia and Croatia. Last summer, tourism returned to normal after-hours intentions, and the number of visitors to Croatian resorts rose again, which should have a positive impact on Kofola’s results for the entire Adriatic region. Slovenian sales for 3Q 2021 are estimated to be 6% in the month, in Croatia we have about 20% increase in zlotys of 117 million K to the level of about 140 million K. In total, the Adriatic segment could record mezzanine no. 12% to 439 million K.

In the same Czech-Slovak segment, we will see equal sales and very sunny performance. As we can see, losk 3Q was a record, very atypical. Losk covid’s restrictions on tourism strongly stimulated the demand for holiday destinations in the Czech Republic with favorable effects on domestic and Slovak consumption, especially in the economy, which Kofola was able to profit significantly. This situation was not repeated this year and it would be surprising for us if Kofola beat the sales. Nevertheless, we will see very solid results on the longest Czech-Slovak market.

The Gastro (HoReCa) segment started to move in the sun over the years, as was the result of Kofola’s 2Q 2021. 5% interim growth of total needs for July, resp. August indicates very good sales in Slovakia and Slovakia. We expect that the Kofola segment of the all-Slovak segment will expect stable inputs in the range of 1514 million K. In 3Q 2021 tm. about 110 million K.

The above indicates that total sales in 3Q 2021 could show growth of 2.7% y / y to 2137 million K. This indicates a relatively strong EBITDA of 499 million K. Loskch record 557 million K will be difficult overcome, when inflationary pressures, which in the case of Kofola are most pronounced in increasing costs for sweeteners (sugar) and packaging (PET resin), become more pronounced last year. Kofola still indicates a negative impact on this year’s EBITDA for around 100 million K. For 3Q 2021, the negative impact of this stock is expected to be around 40 million K. K to 252 million K.

We will follow the year’s EBITDA insight. According to our opinion, the management confirms a slightly improved forecast set at the range of 1080 to 1,150 million CZK (for comparison, EBITDA for 2020 amounted to 1,030 million CZK). It is difficult for you to predict a specific word again. Despite the difficult situation in Slovakia, where in about two thirds of the districts the closed (closed) operation of gastronomic establishments occurs, the current phenomenon as a relatively real attack on the upper boundary of the dispersal. Given the epidemic situation, strict measures in the Czech Republic and the Adriatic cannot be ruled out. So far, the operation of the victorious and adriatic HoReCa has been smoothing, creating the conditions for the intermittent growth of profitability in 4Q 2021, which is very well fulfilled by the year-round duty in the above range.

Jan Raka, analyst, Fio banka, as