Shaking the leaders of the USA and Canada – El Sol de Cuernavaca

AMLO’s speech at the meeting held last week in Washington between the leaders of the T-MEC was a wake-up call that the Mexican president addressed to his peers, along with a shake-up to get active in order to avoid the economic stagnation in the region, which among other things can mean a danger of war.

The bases of its geopolitical reasoning are very clear: as a region, North America has currently only been surpassed in a small part by Asian economies – especially China – but everything indicates that this advantage will grow gradually, until North America move to a secondary place in the world market, fully dominated by the Chinese in the next 30-year period.

The data is hard and clear: currently, the commercial bloc formed by the USA, Canada and Mexico participates with 13% of the total of commercial exchanges in the world, while the Chinese economy does so with 14.4% of it. But this has not always been the case. 30 years ago, in 1990 the Asian giant’s economy only occupied a small percentage of the world market. It only participated with 1.7% of the exchanges, while the USA and its allies had control of 16% of that market.

At present, this advantage has been canceled and there is a virtual tie, but projections for the growth rate of world production and trade indicate that by 2051 China’s share will be 42% of that trade, while North America’s it will barely be 12 percent.

In the course of the next 30 years, the temptation of the main North American power will be to try to maintain the balance, and to contain by force – or on the basis of sanctions – the growth of the Chinese economy. But as the USA has an internal crisis in its productive apparatus, it will have no choice but to increase its purchases of products from China, and that will generate increasingly serious dangers of a warlike conflict. And that does not suit anyone, as the Mexican president indicated.

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One of AMLO’s solution proposals was the substitution of imports at the regional level. For example: since not enough “chips” or semiconductors are produced in our economies, goods are imported from abroad. This means that in the ports of the Pacific (San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Diego in the USA; Lázaro Cárdenas and Manzanillo in Mexico) numerous ships accumulate with enormous amounts of merchandise, congesting the ports and generating increased costs.

If such semiconductors – each day smaller and more refined – were produced in this region, the need for so many imports would be reduced, the employment of skilled labor would be promoted and the ports could be depleted. And that opens the way for qualified labor from Mexico to find full employment both in our country and in the USA, so it is appropriate to demand the immediate flexibility of the requirements to handle migratory flows, since there are many qualified Mexican workers who They do not receive fair wages because in the USA they are kept in an irregular migratory situation.

Some comments have pointed out that Mexico, in the future, could choose to open its doors to Chinese investment, in order to create jobs for our qualified workforce and make it possible for our country to substantially increase its production with high value content, as it could be the one of better motor vehicles, boats, airplanes, etc.

The construction of the Trans-isthmian Railway (Coatzacoalcos-Salina Cruz) opens up immense possibilities for Chinese investment, because it directly connects the commercial flow from Asia to Western countries. In that area, goods with high technological content could be manufactured at low prices, to supply the national market and export to other countries.

This is not a dream, but something perfectly possible within current conditions, in a world where a technological revolution is generated every 6 months. With the globalization of trade and exchanges, this is no longer unthinkable. For now, it is necessary to create more and better jobs and lay the foundations for constant growth to satisfy the demands of a national population that is increasingly qualified and demanding.

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For the rest, AMLO’s visit to the USA left us a lot of material for reflection. The triumphant reception that the Mexican migrant population gave them is explained essentially because they belong to families that live in the most marginalized areas of Mexico, which have benefited from the government’s social programs. This was expressed by some migrants in various interviews.

This phenomenon also explains the explosive growth in remittances that migrants send to their families. This year they will exceed the 50 billion dollars (one trillion pesos) that they send to promote family consumption, but that could also be used for the creation of various collective benefit companies in the benefited regions.

On the other hand, we must raise a bigger issue: in fact, the Mexican people are a binational people. Due to the difficult history that we have lived as a nation, today in Mexico we live almost 130 million Mexicans and in the USA at least another 40 million. One in every 4 Mexicans currently lives in that country, some legalized and others illegal, but all with the same inspiration: to work and make their way through effort, study and tenacity.

It is not by chance that the National Soccer Team plays at home in both friendly and competitive matches in US stadiums. In most cases, the grandstands turn tricolor. The feeling of solidarity with the peasantry is the main factor, but also the memory, the longing, the desire to maintain the tradition, to renew the customs. Migrants are an essential part of the Mexican population.

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The cycle of history repeats itself on another level. As in the Mexican Revolution, to preserve their customs, the peasants of Morelos made a revolution. Thus, today Mexican migrants had to go to other countries to preserve their family nuclei in Mexico, where families are the basis and source of popular culture.

For this reason, when AMLO speaks of a North American regional bloc, he does so on behalf of at least 170 million Mexicans who live and work in the region.