The Government tries to calm investors' doubts about the rise of the SMI and the end of the labor reform
"Social Security affiliation in groups with greater coverage of minimum interprofessional salary (SMI) would have increased between one and four tenths more in 2019 than in the absence of the increase in SMI." Or more clearly:that the rise of the SMI reduced membership by "up to 45,000 inhabitants".
This is what BBVA Research estimates, which today presented its documentSpain reportrelative to the first half of this year, and in which it makes clear that the rise of the SMI to 900 euros agreed by Pedro Snchez and Pablo Iglesiass had a negative impact on the labor market.
And it is more, as explained by the director of the study service of the entity, Jorge Sicilia, "the effects will continue to be noticed"In the next few years." It is evidence that we will have to continue valuing, "he stressed.
In this way, BBVA Research disputes the argument of the Socialist Government, which states that the rise of the SMI has had no impact on employment, and remains in the same position that defends theBank of Spain. TheIndependent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF)On the other hand, I state at first that the increase in the minimum wage will have a negative effect but later, its then president, Jos Luis Escriv, substantially changed his speech and approached the one who maintains what is now his boss, Nadia Calvio.
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Before these certainties and warnings, the team led by Sicily, and which is also part of the prominent economist Rafael Domnech, warns the next Government that before decreeing a new rise of the SMI as the one he intends – and also to repeal the reform labor- analyze the possible consequences of these measures.
"Waiting for the new Government to introduce changes in such important areas as the labor market or pensions and before advancing in a reversal of the reforms implemented in previous years,it will be convenient to review the different evaluations that have been made on the effects that the measures introduced have had and maintain those aspects that have been positively assessed"explains the report.
"This spirit of public policy evaluation should be extended to all areas. In this regard, a detailed analysis of the costs and benefits of the recent changes in the housing sector or of the increases in the Minimum Interprofessional Salary should guide the future actions, "he adds, and concludes:" The new increases in the SMI should be gradual and spaced over time. "
The effect in Spain emptied
The warning of the study service comes one day after the Spanish Confederation of Business Organizations (CEOE) warned of the effect that a new increase of the SMI will have on the less populated provinces. Specifically, the president of the employer, Antonio Garamendi, pointed out that when it is decided to raise the minimum wage and think of the big cities, such as Madrid or Barcelona,but not in Extremadura, where the owner of a hairdresser cannot raise prices by 22% in line with the rise in the minimum wageand "this is the reality", as Europa Pres reports.
And today, the president of the Association of Autonomous Workers (ATA) and also vice president of the CEOE, Lorenzo Amor, said that "raising the minimum wage is a slap in Spain emptied. Depopulation is solved with fiscal aid and economic activity in the rural area. "
The slowdown hits bottom
BBVA's report also estimates that the Spanish economy grew by 1.9% in 2019, two tenths less than the one calculated by the Government, while maintaining its forecast for this year at 1.6%, two tenths less , and predicts a 1.9% advance in 2021 due to the slight improvement of the international environment. If this scenario is fulfilled, it predicts a creation of 600,000 jobs between 2020 and 2021, and that the unemployment rate drops to 12.5%.
In addition, it foresees that the deficit closes 2019 at 2.4%, well above the 2% provided by the Government, and that in 2020 it will only be reduced to 2.2%.
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(tagsToTranslate) economy / macroeconomics (t) labor – wages and pensions (t) International Monetary System (t) Pablo Iglesias (t) Pedro Sánchez (t) Social Security (t) social security affiliation (t) coverage (t) minimum interprofessional salary (t) document (t) euro (t) labor market (t) employment