His name does not appear in any of the electoral contests to the Senate, the House of Representatives or the Governor, but the citizens of the United States who come to vote on Tuesday in the midterm elections have in their thoughts and decisions to vote President Donald Trump, his policies, the achievements he has made, the mistakes he has made and his unusual style of exercising government.
Therefore, on Tuesday, the Republican and Democratic Parties, at a time when the United States suffers a deep division, go for the second political grand prize after the Presidency that is to conquer the majority in the two branches of Congress, which it means – if the Republicans succeed – to open the way for President Trump to promote his policies and bills without obstacles and facilitate his path towards reelection in 2020 or – in the case of a Democratic victory – raise a sort of wall of political containment to stop the proposals of the controversial president.
Mid-term elections in the US by ElPaisUy on Scribd
In a country -as it happens in most of the developed world- where there are no lists, but the struggle for legislative seats is fought in competitions between one candidate per party, the Republican tries to maintain the majority in the Senate -at present it has 51 seats against 49 from the Democratic Party, including two independent legislators who vote with that political force – and also in the House of Representatives, where it now has 240 legislators against 195 opposition.
They are two different scenarios, because in the Senate only 35 seats are renewed, while in Deputies the 435 members are elected. The senators are for a period of six years while the mandate of the deputies is two years.
The Senate is made up of 100 members, at the rate of two for each State. Of the 35 seats that are renewed on Tuesday, only nine are in the hands of the Republicans and 26 of the Democrats. Therefore, to take away the majority of the Republicans, the Democratic Party must not only retain the 26 seats, but also snatch two from the Republicans. Put like that, it seems simple, but in reality, it is not. Some Republican seats appeared to be at risk, as is the case of Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, but in the last week, polls showed he is back in the lead. Also, the one of Martha Blackburn, in Tennessee, was in danger. The latest polls indicate a vote intention of 51.6% for Blackburn, which ensures re-election, and 45.3% for his Democratic rival Phil Bredesen.
In Arizona, on the other hand, the contest is vote to vote. Kyrsten Sinema, a young rising figure in Democratic ranks leads by a point over Martha McSally of the Republican Party.
There are many other scenarios, but in general terms it is estimated that the aforementioned elections, as well as those of Florida, Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia, Montana and Wisconsin – they are seats held by the Democrats – are decisive in winning the majority in the Senate. .
In the House of Representatives, political analysts agree that only about 50 of the 435 seats can change parties in these elections. A party secures the majority with 218 seats. To meet their goal of achieving the majority, the Democrats have the need to take away at least 23 places from the Republicans. The polls of intention of vote show a favorable panorama to the opposition to predominate in Deputies.
Therefore, if the votes cast by citizens confirm the perspective drawn by the polls, the Republicans will continue with the majority in the Senate and lose it in Deputies.
In addition to legislators, citizens will elect 36 of the 50 governors of the States. The Democrats are in a position to recover between six and eight governorships that are now in Republican hands and may lose one, according to the polls.
Due to the political division that exists in the United States since the triumph of Trump in November 2016 – he is a president who provokes extreme reactions, of love or rejection – these legislative elections have a historical importance. The outcome will depend on whether the president can continue to impose his policies or face increasing difficulties to continue fulfilling his campaign promises.
If you look at the historical background, the picture should not be favorable because the parties of many presidents have lost the majority in the cameras. BBC World notes that of the 21 mid-term elections since 1934, the president's party only made gains in the House of Representatives three times and in the Senate five times. To cite an example, a figure that won both times when he ran for president, such as Barack Obama, saw his Democratic Party lose a majority in both the Senate and the Deputies.
Although he is not a candidate on Tuesday, President Trump, who is already planning to run for re-election in 2020, plays a large part in his political future in these elections because they are, in fact, a referendum on his administration. The president does not shun the electoral struggle. On the contrary, he is at the center of the proselytizing scenario because both in his daily Twitter posts and in the great acts he does several times a week in different parts of the country, he expresses his support to the Republican candidates to the Senate and Deputies who assume positions clear for the United States to curb illegal immigration and have secure borders, as well as face without concessions to crime, drug trafficking mafias and terrorism. And, take the opportunity to launch strong criticisms of the Democratic candidates who qualify as weak in all these problems.
The question that many pose is whether Trump really helps the Republican Party in these elections. Everything seems to indicate that it maintains the popular base of support it had in the presidential election. The acts he has carried out throughout this campaign have had high and fervent concurrence. The president shows strong achievements in the economy. Positive indicators are a gift for any party and a theme that unifies its candidates. The United States has one of the lowest unemployment rates in history in general (it stands at 3.7%), as well as the lowest among the Afro-descendant and Hispanic population, and the lowest in 65 years among women. The Stock Exchange is booming. The tax cuts that he promised and put into practice, start to make more money available to workers. Also, four million people left the state food aid that is given through the food stamps.
Trump highlights all those results and also agitates the danger that illegal immigration represents for the United States, as in the case of the caravans that are now moving through Mexico. That theme gives renewed energy to their popular support base.
But, it carries a great failure that is its promise and that of the Republican Party not fulfilled to replace the health reform that Obama approved. It is a priority issue. They promised a solution and they did not give it.
His style of government is another weak point, since it is rejected by a high percentage of the population.
The election, in fact, is a referendum on his government and is key to defining his political future.
Two women, younger candidates to the congress
The feminine presence in the political and electoral scene of the United States has a historical magnitude in the legislative elections: a record of 350 women are running for seats in Congress. In that group are the two youngest candidates, who are at the political extremes. Morgan Murtaugh, of 26 years, who declares herself conservative, aspires for the Republican Party to the bench to deputy for the 53rd District of California. Alexandra Ocasio Cortez, 29, of socialist ideology, seeks to be elected deputy of the Democratic Party for the District 14 of New York.
About to make history in six cases
The election presents several unpublished facts in the history of the United States.
one. Rashida Tlaib, a lawyer, 42 years old, can become the first Muslim deputy. Daughter of Palestinian immigrants, is running for the Democratic Party in the 13th District of Michigan. He appeared with his mother on NBC television and expressed his excitement for making a contribution to the country that opened the great opportunity to his parents.
two. Stacey Abrams is in a tight election fight to be the first black woman elected governor. The lawyer, of 44 years, receives the support of Barack Obama and the star of the TV, Oprah Wnifrey, who spoke in their acts of campaign.
3. Christine Halquist, 62, a technology engineer and consultant, is one step away from making history in Vermont, as she may be the first transgender person to access a Governorate. He ensures that he will carry out an inclusive policy because he really knows the value that implies.
Four. Andrew Gillum, 39, mayor of the Tallahassee city of the Democratic Party, leads the race for the Governor of the State of Florida and if the votes confirm it, he will be the first black to hold this high office. Barack Obama accompanied him in an act, in clear gesture of support.
5. For the first time, there could be a large vote of the millenials. CBS television says in a report that while in other elections the participation of this group was reduced, now exceed 40%, although we will have to see if that expectation is met. It also indicates that 54% are Democrats, 43% Republicans and 24% opt for independent candidates.
6 Latinos make their growing presence felt in these elections. The Pew research center indicates that there are 29 million eligible to vote, which is 12.8% of the electorate. The candidates of this community aspire to reach the Congress, the governorships and state legislatures in 36 States, says AFP. The National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (Naleo) expects a 15% increase in the vote and that the number of Latino deputies can grow from the current 34 to a total of 41.