Kasikorn Research Center Weekly summary of money market conditions, capital markets The baht hit its lowest level in almost a month at 31.46 baht per dollar. before recovering partially at the end of the week The baht gradually depreciated. while the dollar rose along the US 10-year bond yield after the US producer price index. That increased more than expected in May. causing concerns about inflationary pressures to return
In addition, the dollar continues to appreciate After the latest Fed meeting signaled to step away from easing monetary measures. which makes the market assess that QE may begin to slow next year, followed by a rate hike in 2023.
On Friday (June 18), the baht stood at 31.43, compared with 31.08 baht per dollar. On the previous Friday (June 11)
For this week (June 21-25) KASIKORNBANK sees the movement of the baht at 31.20-31.60 baht per dollar. Meanwhile, the Kasikorn Research Center has assessed key factors that need to be monitored, namely, the number of Thai exports in May. Monetary policy meeting results and Thai economic projections of the MPC Situation and plans for the distribution of the COVID-19 vaccine in the country
While important US economic numbers include second-hand home sales. new home sales durable purchase orders Personal Income/Expense and PCE/Core PCE Price Index May Consumer Confidence Index June And GDP figures for the quarter 164 (3rd time) In addition, the market is waiting to follow up on the results of the Bank of England’s monetary policy meeting, the June PMI index (preliminary) of the Eurozone, the UK and the US and interest rates. China’s central bank LPR loan as well
Summary of the movement of the Thai stock market
Thai stocks have fallen for most of the week, with the SET index closing at 1,612.98 points, down 1.44% from the previous week. The average daily trading value was 92,767.00 million baht, down 6.28% from the previous week, while the mai index rose 0.11% to close at 505.51 points.
Thai stocks have fallen since the beginning of the week. in line with the pressure on banking and financial stocks Amid the uncertainty of the credit card credit ceiling revision personal loan and registered mortgage loans after the government wants to solve the public debt problem The Thai stocks recovered briefly in the middle of the week before falling again for the rest of the week. After the Fed signaled that it may raise the policy rate in 2023, which is faster than before. In addition, a challenging domestic vaccine distribution plan is also a negative factor for Thai stocks.
For this week (21-25 Jun) KASIKORN SECURITIES COMPANY LIMITED views that the Thai stock index has support at 1,600 and 1,585 points, while resistance is at 1,625 and 1,635 points, respectively. (23 Jun) Export numbers for May of Thailand, the situation of COVID-19, as well as progress in the distribution of the COVID-19 vaccine in the country and abroad. including details about the plan to open the country
The key US economic data is new home sales. second hand home sales durable purchase orders Inflation as measured by the Core PCE Price Index and personal income and expenses for May as well as the manufacturing and service PMI index in June. (Preliminary) while other important foreign factors are the PMI index of manufacturing and service sectors in June. (Preliminary) Japan and the Eurozone including China’s June LPR loan interest rate